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Old 10-19-2011, 04:04 PM   #1
dbuck
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The Law of Exponents in relation to National Debt

I received this from a very good friend, one whom works indirectly for the government, one who served 8+ yrs in the military if which more than half was spent in Afghan and other middle eastern countries doing intelligence work. This guy has seen it all....innocents being killed, friends killed in action, corrupt goverment leaders, etc. I have the utmost respect for this guy and one day he'll be my governor, or better yet president if we don't cease to exist as a country. Long read, but well worth it....so much so that I decided to share it with my moto "friends". Read it, chew it, act on it.

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The Law of Exponents

Before you fall asleep, this is not meant to be a math lesson; it is an explanation, using basic math, as to why we are all in deep and why the Tea Party, the Occupy Wall Street protests, and whatever other legal, non-violent activity comes next MUST SUCCEED if we are to accomlish meaningful change in Washington. (That's right, I said OWS must SUCCEED. Sure, most of them are fruitbats, but they think the same thing of the Tea Party types, and at the end of the day, we can all agree that Wall Street is part of the problem, right?).

If you don't understand the law of exponents, then you understand nothing when it comes to economics and the lies told by both the left and right. You are not stupid, however: you are ignorant. That's ok, ignorance can be cured.

First, realize that this ignorance is intentional. Our "educational system", our bankers (I prefer to call them "banksters") and our politicians intentionally fail to explain the fundamental concept involved for one and only one reason: Once you understand it - truly understand it - you can never fall victim to a ponzi scheme. Not only that, you will never allow any society you are a member of to fall victim to one either, as you will recognize the inherent danger and demand that they be stopped and the people responsible either locked up or burned at the stake (after a proper trial, of course.)

Ignorance is cured by education. It is why we learn, hopefully, so we become less-ignorant.

Anyway, here we go.... pour yourself a nice cup of coffee and sit down for a short story that will explain why we're utterly screwed if we don't act and why acting to stop the progression of what is going in our economy right now is not an option - it is an imperative.

Let's say there happens to be a particular species of pond lily that is extremely prolific. In fact it grows so fast that it doubles in size through both growth and reproduction in just one day.

We will start with a pond of a surface area of 4096 square feet, or about a 64X64 foot square. We will place within that pond one lily with an area of of one square foot; that is, a lily that is a square of 12" x 12".

This pond contains fish, which would like to live in symbiosis with the algae and other growing plant material within the pond. In order to do that, some part of the pond's surface must be exposed to the air so that oxygen and carbon dioxide can be exchanged, and some part of the pond's surface must be open to the sun, or the algae that make up a good part of the food the fish eat (we will assume they do not eat the lilies directly) can survive. The lilies will conveniently consume the urea (nitrogen) that the fish excrete, preventing the pond water from becoming poisonous. So long as this symbiosis is maintained all is fine. But if this symbiotic relationship fails, all the fish will die.

We are the fish, incidentally, and the lilies are the National debt.

Now here's the question: Will the fish inevitably die and if so, how many days will pass before they perish?

That's easy.

On the first day only 1 square foot of pond is covered (the first lily).
On the second, 2
On the third, 4.
On the fourth, 8.
On the fifth, 16.
On the sixth, 32.

Note that on the 6th day just 0.8% of the pond is covered with lilies. You would not detect any problem on the sixth day, I suspect. More than 99% of the pond is open to the sky!

Now here's the nasty truth: If you're a fish you're halfway to being dead!

Wide awake yet? I hope so; let's continue.

On the seventh day 64 square feet are covered.
On the eighth, 128.
On the ninth, 256.
On the tenth, 512.

The pond is now 12.5% covered. More than 80% of the surface area is open to the sky. When you hear someone say "we have 80% of our resource left; we can't be in trouble", consider exactly where you are. Why? You'll see in a moment....

On the eleventh day, 1024 square feet are covered.
On the twelfth, 2048.
On the thirteenth day there is no surface open to the sky and every fish in the pond dies.

When did you figure out you're in trouble? Was it on the twelfth day? Well if so you had literally less than 24 hours to commit mass lilicide or you're all dead! You literally can't spend one day debating with your fellow fish even though you still have half the surface area open to the sky on that 11th day.

This is the nature of exponents.

When it comes to economics we need to consider what the doubling time is to figure out how soon our situation will get intolerably bad. Math provides us the answer; we can use the natural logarithm to determine time. Most people's eyes are beginning to fuzz over right now, but bear with me a little longer.

Years ago, long before calculators, banksters reduced the use of logarithms to a "rule" called "The Rule of 72." Simply put, you can take the growth rate of anything and divide that into 72 to find the approximate doubling time. So if we have debt growing at 7% a year in the economy we can divide it into 72 and find that it takes about 10 years for the debt in the system to double. This is an approximation, but it's close enough to do in your head (72 is a convenient number for mental division as it is divisible by both 12 and 6 and 6 of course factors to 2 and 3, so most common multiples can be quickly figured in your head without pencil and paper.)

Now go back and read the lily example again, and remember that when you're one day away from being extinct you still had half of the available resource! Now think of this as the money you earn to pay interest and/or principal on the National debt, and you see where we are as a Nation!

Even with a fifty percent current economic surplus in this example, you're still just one day away from certain destruction!

Do you see the problem more-clearly now?

All the so-called "economists" and the various commentators both in the mainstream media and blogosphere either do not understand this or simply refuse to accept and discuss it.

But it doesn't matter whether you choose to accept that you were inevitably doomed in three days back when the pond was only 12.5% covered with lilies. You saw the blue sky and breathed easily, yet you were literally three days away from certain extinction and your refusal to accept mathematics cannot change what is about to happen to you!

In this situation, you either start killing lillies FAST or you're dead!

These are facts folks. They are governed by mathematical laws that are fixed and cannot be avoided. I cannot change them, you cannot change them, Barack Obama cannot change them, the Republicans cannot change them. Nobody can change them. They do not care if you are a Republican, Democrat or Independent. They do not care about social causes, emotional distress or any argument you may be able to devise. Those things are politics, not math.

The willful refusal of politicians and financial types, the latter of whom absolutely know this stuff and the former have no excuse for not understanding it, to discuss this point clearly when it comes to all matters of the economy is exactly why we are in this position.

We cannot avoid the mathematical facts or their effects. Unlike the laws of man that can be evaded through bribery and trickery (aka, Politics), mathematics cannot be.

You either accept these facts or you suffer the consequences.

That brings us to the thing we can change in all of this. The one thing we can change, and the one safeguard we have against the banksters who have literally robbed us not once but 3 times in the last 4 years, is the government. No, not this current government...they've proven where they stand on these issues. I mean the government we want, the one we need, and the one we are protesting FOR with all of our Tea Parties, letters, OWS demonstrations, etc.
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Old 10-19-2011, 04:05 PM   #2
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continued

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What we need to do, in my opinion, is to forget about all of the divisiveness...all of the liberal vs. conservative vs. independent stuff, and focus on the things we can agree on. For example, we all agree that the financial situation in this country is out of control. That may mean different things to each of us, but in general, we know that we've spent too much, and that the rules which were supposed to create a level playing field for everyone haven't worked that way. That sounds to me like a good place to start.

Only by refusing to continue to ride the merry-go-round will we ever get the ride to stop. So long as we buy into the notion that it's either Democrat or Republican, liberal or conservative, black or white, etc., we are hopelessly stuck on this ride. And what's more, I don't think either party cares. I think they've factored this into their calculations, and are only too happy to bide their time and wait their turn to be on top. 2008 was a Democrat year. 2010 the Republicans won back the House of Representatives. And so on, and so forth.

Think about it for a second...and I won't go too far back for an example that is somewhat fresh:

Because of Johnson, we got Nixon. Because of Nixon, we got Carter(!). Because of Carter, we got Reagan (Thank ). Because of Reagan, Bush 41 was elected, but because of Bush 41, we got Clinton. Because of Clinton, we got Bush 43. Because of Bush 43, we got Obama (or Carter II, if you prefer). Now, because of Obama, we'll likely get a Republican president, and will definitely get a Republican Congress. Anyone else see the pattern here? And what's worse, we've allowed this to happen for the past 30+ years! We've done it to ourselves!

One final point to make and I will leave you to think all of this over:

The World Economic Forum (WEF) said recently that for the U.S. to achieve a 3% GDP growth for the next decade we would have to double the total National debt. That is a roughly 7% annual growth rate in debt, or a "spread" of about 4% of added debt over actual productive output or "growth". In order to do this, the amount of earnings from everyone in the economy that will have to be diverted to interest payments will also have to approximately double (up for a 100% increase in the amount of taxes you currently pay, anyone?). Yet it is the inability to pay that interest (and the principal where the interest is paid down) that is factually known to have been the trigger for the 2007/08 financial collapse! Also, because of the exponent factor explained above, this growth in debt at their assumed 3% growth rate in GDP will produce only a 34% increase in actual positive output, which is what you must use pay for that doubling! This means that we would be asked to pay double in taxes while only realizing a 34% increase in growth! That not only cannot be sustained, it is sheer lunacy!

We must accept what we have done.

The fact is that if the pond will be covered entirely with lilies on October 31st it is now October 30th.

We have two choices: We either start killing lilies and find a way to keep them from reproducing, even though it appears we have ONLY half of our pond covered and all is fine, or we will all perish with certainty. We all become GREECE at that point.

Incidentally, when everything goes to in a handbasket, Texas is my fall back position. Y'all save some rounds for me.
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Old 10-19-2011, 04:28 PM   #3
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Sounds good to me
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Old 10-19-2011, 04:35 PM   #4
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I read it here before,

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Old 10-19-2011, 04:37 PM   #5
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yeah, he obviously didn't write all of that....but wanted to share it with those whom he loves (including me). I did the favor of sharing it with others (hopefully some who are ignorant).
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Old 10-19-2011, 05:21 PM   #6
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Dbuck,

I like this guy.
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Old 10-19-2011, 05:47 PM   #7
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I've been saying it for years now here on MH, it's our Nations Debt that we need to be most concerned with and that it needs to be addressed. Our debt is unsustainable and for the life of me, I don't understand why there are people out there that can see that. When I talk to people at work and our 14 TRILLION in debt, they think it's no big deal.
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Old 10-19-2011, 07:26 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FKNA View Post
When I talk to people at work and our 14 TRILLION in debt, they think it's no big deal.
Quote:
Why S&P Downgraded the US:
U.S. Tax revenue: $2,170,000,000,000
Federal budget: $3,820,000,000,000
New debt: $1,650,000,000,000

National debt: $14,271,000,000,000
Recent [April] budget cut: $38,500,000,000

Letís remove 8 zeros and pretend itís a household budget:
Annual family income: $21,700
Money the family spent: $38,200
New debt (this year) on the credit card: $16,500
Outstanding balance on the credit card: $142,710
Budget cuts: $385
THAT is what most people can't understand it...
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Old 10-19-2011, 07:28 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by Jason_Canuck View Post
I read it here before,

beer, beans and bullets
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Old 10-19-2011, 09:56 PM   #10
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CLIFF NOTES
Math
We're closer to doom than we think because of national debt
We need to all agree
Going back and forth has got us in more trouble
Offers no more in terms of a solution
and ends by saying if all else fails TEXAS

That is a really long article to try to instill a sense of urgency into whoever reads it. But where are the solutions? Ron Paul has a few.
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Old 10-19-2011, 10:09 PM   #11
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One more thing to say

It's what we do with our criminals, how we reward our producing citizens, the rules we impose on our businesses and what we teach our children that will define us as a country.

Currently,
criminals are getting away with , living off of the government whether they are in jail or the projects.
We give money to people who defraud us.
Those who work hard are only asked to work harder and the credit for their work goes to someone else. Their money is given to those who don't work whether it's the bean counter at corporate, or people at home collecting welfare.
We tax the out of business. We allow businesses that use cheap labor from other countries (where the labor is cheap because they don't have the laws we have that protect us from being slaves with a paycheck) to sell here.
Public school teaches our children a whole bunch of that doesn't matter. Lots of kids aren't learning at home and we allow piece of people to have piece of kids that grow up to make more piece of people.

/endrant
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