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Old 11-15-2011, 07:59 PM   #1
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Lightbulb First Online platform for Iron Ore Trading

The world’s first and only global Metal Bulletin Iron Ore (MBIO) Index Futures Contract (SMMBIO) traded on the Singapore Mercantile Exchange (SMX) crossed the volume of 1.1 million tons in September, its first full month since the launch on August 12, 2011.The last day of September also saw SMX record its highest ever overall turnover and volume on a single day. The turnover was USD 635.23 million with a total volume of 19,231.

For those interested in trading commodities now you can register on SMX and begin trading just like you would trade stocks online!

FYI: Oct. 2011 Iron Ore lost 30% of its value due to excess inventory left over at major Chinese ports and the Chinese credit tightening policy, but in November most steel mills are running out of stock so they are in the process of restocking, driving the price back up again. Backed by macro fundamentals there is still lots of room for a sizable profit if done right which could be as much as $15 USD/ton.

Singapore Mercantile Exchange: http://www.smx.com.sg/Index.aspx
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Old 11-15-2011, 08:32 PM   #2
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Originally Posted by sunday_rider View Post
The world’s first and only global Metal Bulletin Iron Ore (MBIO) Index Futures Contract (SMMBIO) traded on the Singapore Mercantile Exchange (SMX) crossed the volume of 1.1 million tons in September, its first full month since the launch on August 12, 2011.The last day of September also saw SMX record its highest ever overall turnover and volume on a single day. The turnover was USD 635.23 million with a total volume of 19,231.

For those interested in trading commodities now you can register on SMX and begin trading just like you would trade stocks online!

FYI: Oct. 2011 Iron Ore lost 30% of its value due to excess inventory left over at major Chinese ports and the Chinese credit tightening policy, but in November most steel mills are running out of stock so they are in the process of restocking, driving the price back up again. Backed by macro fundamentals there is still lots of room for a sizable profit if done right which could be as much as $15 USD/ton.

Singapore Mercantile Exchange: http://www.smx.com.sg/Index.aspx
I need to talk to you about investing one of these days~
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Old 11-22-2011, 04:43 PM   #3
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just some insider info.....

Most steel mills have completed their restocking process last week so now the market is adjusting to compensate for the lower demand, this is a great time to buy a few lots and wait until after Chinese New Year for a quick profit or hold it longer for the best ROI. Most steel mills have no choice but to return to the market once their inventory have been depleted, so this will create a huge demand for all mineral products needed to manufacture Steel!

Right now spot price is around $135 as of today, forward curve for Dec is $132/135, Q1 $131/133. 2 fundamental factors that i look at is 1) Support level is usually at $145-155 and highest price for 2011 was at $231 USD/ton on the spot market, which is indicative of where the price would be on the highest point for 2012. 2) India which is the third biggest iron ore producer will no longer be allowed to export their materials due to new government regulations which means that there will be less supply available driving the price higher than usual unless Vale, BHP and Rio Tinto can produce the extra inventory that India used to ship to China.

I expect the price to drop a little more in the next 2 weeks and stay at that level for the rest of 2011 and beginning of 2012. If you have the money to invest, this is the perfect time guys!
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Old 01-12-2012, 02:21 AM   #4
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As of today, Spot market price for 63.5% Fe greade Iron Ore is at $155 usd/ton, since i posted this back in Nov. 2011 the price has gone up $20 usd/ton already, if you bought a lot of 1000 tons of iron ore in Nov 2011 and sold it today, you would have made $20,000 usd in less than 2 months!

I expect the prices to gain another $15 usd/ton after Chinese New Year holidays!
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Old 01-12-2012, 05:16 PM   #5
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Here are a few other factors that i look at in determining demand and pricing for commodities in the Spot market:

Part 1 "For commodities in general":

http://www.chinainteresting.com/chin...s’-policy.html

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16464092

Part 2 "Iron Ore specific":

http://www.steelorbis.com/steel-news...ion-653054.htm

http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/...-1226241805362

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...8CB1BH20120111

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...8C34V920120103
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Old 01-12-2012, 05:31 PM   #6
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As of today, Spot market price for 63.5% Fe greade Iron Ore is at $155 usd/ton, since i posted this back in Nov. 2011 the price has gone up $20 usd/ton already, if you bought a lot of 1000 tons of iron ore in Nov 2011 and sold it today, you would have made $20,000 usd in less than 2 months!

I expect the prices to gain another $15 usd/ton after Chinese New Year holidays!
what would it have cost to purchase the lot in November?
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Old 01-12-2012, 05:37 PM   #7
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what would it have cost to purchase the lot in November?
Hey Curt, the price was at $135/ton back in Nov. 2011 so a regular lot of 1000 tons was $135,000 usd/lot

At today's price of $155/ton the same lot you purchased for 135k would be worth $155,000 usd
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Old 01-12-2012, 05:45 PM   #8
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14% in two months? not bad at all.
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Old 01-12-2012, 05:47 PM   #9
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Like i mentioned earlier, you have 4 factors working in your favor:

1. China is going to ease credit to incentive growth for 2012, this means lots of infrastructure project which means lots of steel will be used for the construction industry, which in turn means that the steel makers will need to purchase more raw materials (iron ore, manganese ore) to manufacture steel bars, h-beams and steel rolls.

2. The rain/flood in Brazil has killed about 2 months of production for one of the biggest miners of iron ore "VALE"

3. Australia has shut down main ports for iron ore loading due to a cyclone which further reduces the amount of materials going into China for Q1.

4. India which is also one of the top producers of iron ore raised their taxes on exports in an effort to keep all of the steel making raw materials in their domestic market, which means that there will be 75% less iron ore for export to China.
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Old 01-12-2012, 05:50 PM   #10
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14% in two months? not bad at all.
exactly.... iron ore is a volume business so you will make more when you invest more but most people start with a regular lot of 1000 tons or a mini lot of 500 tons.
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Old 01-12-2012, 05:54 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sunday_rider View Post
Hey Curt, the price was at $135/ton back in Nov. 2011 so a regular lot of 1000 tons was $135,000 usd/lot

At today's price of $155/ton the same lot you purchased for 135k would be worth $155,000 usd
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exactly.... iron ore is a volume business so you will make more when you invest more but most people start with a regular lot of 1000 tons or a mini lot of 500 tons.
a mini lot....only 67% of my mortgage! Gotta have $$$ to make money, right? One day I hope to have that kinda liquid capital to throw around.
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Old 01-12-2012, 06:03 PM   #12
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a mini lot....only 67% of my mortgage! Gotta have $$$ to make money, right? One day I hope to have that kinda liquid capital to throw around.
market conditions and demand will be sustainable for another decade, so you will have plenty of time to make some money in the near future
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Old 01-12-2012, 08:11 PM   #13
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Now if we could get about 10-15 people together to go in as a non-individual trader and have an equal stake this may be doable for a number of people. For myself 1000 tons would have been doable but on a first time I would prefer the 500 ton option. With that said if we put together the right group we could share the risk with some good upside potential. PM me if anyone is interested and we can go through the application process. You must be willing to risk a loss but also look at the upside potential.
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Old 01-12-2012, 08:35 PM   #14
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Now if we could get about 10-15 people together to go in as a non-individual trader and have an equal stake this may be doable for a number of people. For myself 1000 tons would have been doable but on a first time I would prefer the 500 ton option. With that said if we put together the right group we could share the risk with some good upside potential. PM me if anyone is interested and we can go through the application process. You must be willing to risk a loss but also look at the upside potential.
That is a great idea

I have posted 3 investment tips on MH and so far i am 100% accurate on all 3 accounts, for those who have the cash to invest, this is a great opportunity to diversify, it beats the interest rate of any bank or financial institution, who knows if you do it right, it may well replace your 401k plan and help you retire sooner!

If there is enough interest i will be more than willing to give you guys industry news, since i am the producer and i only deal with end users in China, i have the advantage of knowing important market data that could be useful in aiding your trading decisions!
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Old 02-08-2012, 12:16 PM   #15
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This should push the price up a few bucks by March/April 2012, if you have your money sitting at a bank, put it to work for you!

China may cut iron ore imports from Iran as sanction concern

China is likely to reduce the amount of iron ore it buys from Iran from March due to concerns that sanctions may disrupt exports worth over $2 billion a year to the world’s largest consumer of the raw material, traders said on Wednesday.

Iran is a political ally of China and one of its biggest crude oil suppliers. Iran was also China’s fifth biggest supplier of iron ore in 2011, selling some 17 million tonnes, but traders said they expected purchases to shrink in coming months as the sanctions may disrupt shipments and payments.

“There is a huge risk ahead, and many just haven’t realized it yet,” said a senior executive at a Shanghai-based trading firm that has a long-term partnership with an Iranian supplier.

“It’s easy for the United States to freeze our business, forcing large Chinese iron ore traders, which have large trading volumes with Iran, to be more cautious when making bookings.

It’s not worth taking the risk,” he added. Although Iranian ore accounted for just 2.4 per cent of China’s total 686 million tonne imports last year, its absence will push up prices as China scrambles for alternative supplies of the raw material used to make steel.

“Iran is one of the major sources for lower-rate iron ore. Without Iranian ore, Chinese buyers will be forced to look for more cheaper materials from Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa,” said Han Xun, China manager with the Steel Index.
“It may also seek to buy more from dominant suppliers like Australia and Brazil.”

Chinese buyers usually pay Iranian suppliers via a representative office set up in Dubai, in the United Arab Emirate, or in other countries. The money is then transferred from banks in those countries to Tehran.

The Shanghai-based trader, who requested anonymity, said the United States would find it easy to trace payments made by major trading firms to Iran.
An iron ore buyer based in eastern China’s Shandong province said some of his Iranian suppliers had rushed shipments, a sign that they too were worried about potential payment problems.

“We made two bookings due to be delivered separately in early and late February, but our Iranian supplier delivered the two shipments together in early February due to concerns that they might not be able to deliver later in the month,” he said.
“I expect imports from Iran to show a decline in March.”

Last year, China’s commerce ministry warned traders against buying Iranian ore, saying shipments were often substandard and late.
Trade, however, was up 14 percent on the year in 2011 and some Iranian sellers said that so far, it was business as usual.

“We do not think that sanctions can have any negative effect on the export of iron ore to China as we sell on the basis of telegraphic transfer in advance to our accounts in Dubai, Italy and Tajikistan,” said a Dubai-based Iranian trader via email.
“Shipments are also going smoothly to China.”

Another Shandong-based buyer of Iranian ore, however, said be believed several shippers were not taking Iranian cargoes.
“I’ve heard that more and more foreign shipping companies are unwilling to cooperate with Iran due to sanctions,” he added.

Some Chinese traders said they would continue to purchase iron ore from Iran for as long as they could pay for, and receive, it because it was cheaper than other sources.
“Many Chinese traders, and miners, want to take the opportunity to buy the ore to make more money,” the Shanghai-based trader said. “Though I am still making bookings from Iran, I am extremely cautious.”
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Old 02-08-2012, 01:39 PM   #16
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Thats some good info right there. Just curious because I've never done any kind of trading whether stocks or commodities. What would it cost to get into it?
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Old 02-08-2012, 01:44 PM   #17
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Thats some good info right there. Just curious because I've never done any kind of trading whether stocks or commodities. What would it cost to get into it?
You can start trading commodities thru any ETF of trading platform, you can start with mini lots, every broker is different but the Singapore Exchange seems to be one of the best choices for Iron Ore trading, i think Glenn (grsa) wanted to get a few people together and give it a try. IMO commodities is a lot safer than playing the stock market.
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Old 02-08-2012, 01:58 PM   #18
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Old 02-08-2012, 02:01 PM   #19
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IMO commodities is a lot safer than playing the stock market.
Short term (<10 years) for sure.
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Old 02-08-2012, 05:27 PM   #20
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Short term (<10 years) for sure.
you can only understand commodities when you are actually involved in this type of trading. The commodities market will always be around simply because we depend on natural resources for energy, housing, transportation, etc.

Oil: we will always depend on oil as a main source of energy, wont change in the next 100 years unless technology break through make this possible in the short term outlook.

Steel: last time i checked, most major infrastructure depended on steel to build highways, skyscrapers, bridges, ships, cars, etc. One key ingredient in the manufacture of Steel is Iron Ore! So as long as the population keeps growing we will need to build more houses, offices, warehouses, etc. it's a chain reaction that will keep us very dependent in raw materials needed to manufacture Steel for the different industries.

There are many other commodities that will be around forever unless we can find a cheaper and better quality replacement. Commodities trading was around even longer the the stock market and will always be more stable just because there is a tangible product and a market demand to make the trade happen
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